Monthly Comment from Professor P. Fraser Johnson
Director of the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
Results for March 2020 showed the most significant changes in the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index since the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 for the following indices: purchases, employment, inventories and supplier deliveries. The overall results are provided below. The normal report has been expanded to include additional data that includes a comparison of the March 2020 results with previous historical lows and a breakdown of results for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.
Overall Results:
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (seasonally adjusted) for March 2020 stood at 26.0. The corresponding figure for March 2019 was 54.3 and for March 2018 was 59.8. Results in November 2008 and March 2009 were the previous historical low for the seasonally adjusted PMI at 42.1.
The Employment index (seasonally adjusted) for March 2020 stood at 26.8; Inventories (seasonally adjusted) 33.6; Supplier Deliveries (seasonally adjusted) 17.7; and Prices (seasonally adjusted) 57.3.
Previous historical lows for these (seasonally adjusted) indices were: Employment 42.0 (February 2009); Inventories 38.8 (September 2001); Supplier Deliveries 38.3 (February 2011); and Prices 48.0 (February 2009).
The Ivey PMI unadjusted data for the month of March 2020 was 28.2; Employment 27.1; Inventories 34.5; Supplier Deliveries 19.4; and Prices 58.
Previous historical lows for the (unadjusted) indices were: Purchases 36.1 (January 2009); Employment 37.5 (February 2009); Inventories 35.8 (November 2008); Supplier Deliveries 36.4 (July 2008); and Prices 47.5 (December 2008).
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (seasonally adjusted) for February 2020 stood at 54.1. The corresponding figure for February 2019 was 50.6 and for February 2018 was 59.6. The Employment index (seasonally adjusted) for February 2020 stood at 54.7; Inventories (seasonally adjusted) 53.3; Supplier Deliveries (seasonally adjusted) 41.8; and Prices (seasonally adjusted) 56.6.
Manufacturing Sector Results:
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (seasonally adjusted) for the manufacturing sector for March 2020 stood at 35.1. The Employment index (seasonally adjusted) stood at 33.0; Inventories (seasonally adjusted) 41.7; Supplier Deliveries (seasonally adjusted) 21.8; and Prices (seasonally adjusted) 51.8.
The Ivey PMI unadjusted data for the manufacturing sector for March 2020 was 38.1; Employment 33.3; Inventories 42.9; Supplier Deliveries 23.8; and Prices 52.4.
Non-manufacturing Sector Results:
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (seasonally adjusted) for the non-manufacturing sector for March 2020 stood at 23.0. The Employment index (seasonally adjusted) stood at 24.8; Inventories (seasonally adjusted) 30.3; Supplier Deliveries (seasonally adjusted) 16.3; and Prices (seasonally adjusted) 59.3.
The Ivey PMI unadjusted data for the non-manufacturing sector for March 2020 was 25.0; Employment 25.0; Inventories 31.1; Supplier Deliveries 17.8; and Prices 60.0.
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index shows responses to the question: “Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?”
A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.
